Why does the country be engaged in pension insurance to collect the tax subsidies of the rich? 1 Comment / Default / By huanggs
1 thought on “Why does the country be engaged in pension insurance to collect the tax subsidies of the rich?”
After more than four years of research and demonstration, the top -level design scheme of the endowment insurance is nearing completion.
In the reporter of "Finance", the basic pensions in the overall plan national coordination, state -owned asset transfer social security, delayed retirement age, etc., all parties reached consensus. However, where the unavoidable pension personal account is still, it is still trapped in the vortex of controversy.
In in China, the personal account of pension is formed by 8 % of the monthly salary of employees, and its equity is its own, which is equivalent to a compulsory savings. At this time, emphasizing good luck and eating "big pot rice".
Muctant to some employees of the personal account can be received, which is closely related to the savings amount in the account.
The personal account is a new thing introduced in the last round of social security reform more than 20 years ago. At that time, the general social security system was initially built, but due to various reasons, personal accounts were in a state of empty account operation for a long time. In the past few years, the policy has not been clear about the reform direction of personal accounts. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has decided to make only the expression of "the basic pension insurance system that adheres to the combination of social coordination and personal accounts, and improve the personal account system."
How its changes will affect the future life of the insured.
The personal account flow
is different from most countries. When China established a basic pension system in the 1990s, China adopted a combination of social overall planning and personal accounts. About 20 % of the employee salary paid by the unit entered a coordinated account, and 8 % paid by employees themselves entered their personal accounts.
In policy design, the two parts correspond to the two systems and different ideas. Social overall planning corresponds to the current collection and payment system, that is, the in -employee pays the retirees' pensions, and its deposit does not stay in the account, but is directly issued to the retirees of the present. Save money, this fund is stored on a bank account as a future pension asset.
The pensions received by employees are also divided into two parts, corresponding to different development methods. The distribution of social overall planning is mainly related to factors such as the average salary of the society. Although the reference payment period and the amount of payment, the correlation with personal payment behavior is far less than that of personal accounts. The latter is equivalent to a compulsory savings, and the method of calculation is concise. The cumulative principal and interest in the account will be distributed monthly with a fixed monthly number. For example, the monthly treatment of the 60 -year -old retirement is 139 It reflects the principle of "more paid, the more you receive".
The combination of China's unified accounts is intended to have the advantages of both systems: the corresponding cash withdrawal system of social overall planning has a strong secondary distribution function, which can help reduce the gap between the rich and poor; The property rights are clear and can encourage people to pay more.
but the two systems have their own defects that have not received enough attention earlier: the current payment system has been under tremendous pressure from the aging of the population structure, the proportion of the elderly population has increased, the pressure of young people's payment has risen, and the sustainable sustainability is facing sustainable. Risk; cumulative pressure comes from value preservation and appreciation. If it is not good, it is equivalent to the depreciation of people's pension money.
The pretty good institutional ideas did not fully play the expected role.
The people who retired before the establishment of the system have not deposited funds for the pension, and the government hopes that they can get sufficient pension treatment and repay the task of repaying this part of the historical debt to the subsequent payment. This is also the origin of up to 28 % of domestic pension insurance. This can also be explained that when the economic downturn, the call to reduce social security costs has repeatedly appeared, but the steps to reduce the rate of endowment insurance rate are cautious.
The same because this part of history is debt and the proportion of the aging population is continuously increased, the coordinated account part is not enough to issue it to retirees, and it can only misappropriate personal account funds to fill the holes.
This, there is no actual funds in the accumulated personal account, there is only one payment record. Therefore, the combination of accounting is actually similar to returning to the old path that was originally collected.
If you just go back, it is not terrible. The problem is that the accounting amount in the personal account is getting larger and larger, and in the end, it is necessary to use the real gold and silver to repay the account.
Li Zhen, director of the Institute of Social Security of Renmin University of China, calculated that if the annual growth rate of public budget income and the scale of personal account bookkeeping, the annual growth rate of the accounts of personal accounts remained at the level of 2015. By 2024, it is seven years later. The accounting scale of the account will exceed the public budget revenue.
This is quite scratching, and there is not much time for people to come up with solutions.
Teze decision makers have noticed this problem many years ago and tried to solve it. Since 2000, the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang have been listed as a pilot to gradually make real personal accounts, that is, inject funds from the original personal account. In 2006, the pilot expanded to eight provinces and cities including Tianjin, Shanghai, Shanxi.
However, in violation of his wishes, Liaoning's pilot was difficult to accumulate a bit of funds to be misappropriated as the current pension. Since then, the "doing real personal account" has also disappeared in subsequent policy texts, and personal account reforms have not made substantial progress so far.
Three possible reform roads
Should the unified account combination system that performs poorly performed, or simply returned to the current collection payment?
The current reform ideas include three types: maintaining the existing system unchanged, or the proportion of personal accounts properly; implementation of the "division system", to be part or all of the personal account or all The account system, and expand the proportion of personal accounts, changed to 16 % of the "big account" to promote the transition of the pension system towards cumulative system.
Different ideas may bring different results.
If the same system does not change, in order to deal with aging payment pressure, several system parameters must be adjusted. For example, extend the age of retirement and extend the minimum payment time of pension insurance. With the improvement of the per capita life expectancy, the approach to receipt of pensions only needs to be paid by 15 years of insurance will inevitably change.
The idea of "division" has become more active in recent years. The so -called supplementary pension mainly refers to the enterprise annuity system established by some enterprises for employees. Some scholars concept that the government has established a new pension account for all citizens to encourage enterprises and employees to deposit money to the account through tax discounts. This system has long been designed abroad. For example, in the United States' personal retirement account, people can easily check the deposit records and balances of their account. The ownership of supplementary pensions is very clear, that is, individuals, and individuals have certain options for how to invest. But the biggest difficulty of this idea is that the enthusiasm of enterprises and the government is not high. In 2016, only 23.25 million people owned an enterprise annuity.
. The bigger difficulty is that the funds transferred to the supplementary pension must be realized, which will put pressure on the finance or forced the government to find a new source of wealth.
The vice chairman of the Insurance Regulatory Commission Huang Hong publicly stated at the end of June that he would formulate a pilot plan for personal tax deferred commercial pension insurance as soon as possible. The plan points to some specific business pension products, not establishing a new pension account. This may show that the idea of "division" has not been adopted by the decision maker.
In the establishment of a nominal account system is based on the reality of empty account operations of personal accounts. In this design, employees still deposit to personal accounts, but there is no real funds in the account. All payment is used to pay the pension of the current retirees. Strengthen "more payment and more" to encourage people to pay more. In addition, with the accumulation of funds, the accumulation has gradually transformed to cumulative systems to improve the sustainability of future pensions.
In order to mobilize people's payment enthusiasm, the proportion of personal accounts needs to be expanded. If the unit payment is allocated 8 %, the personal account is expanded to 16 %, which is also called the "big account" reform plan.
This can avoid the huge cost of direct transformation to real accounts in the short term. At the same time, due to the lack of actual funds in the account, the pressure of investment operations can be avoided when the domestic capital market is not sound.
The worry about capital operation is not just a problem for China.
2001, whether to introduce a personal account has aroused discussion in the United States. Tao Lei Simon, Vice President of the US Retirement Association, told the reporter of "Finance" that after the economic recession occurred in 2008, no more people came to discuss this issue because people were unwilling to take financial and economic risks. But she repeatedly reiterated that in order to obtain a suitable elderly life, people must start their own savings plan as soon as possible.
For all countries, it is quite cautious when considering whether to introduce personal accounts in basic pensions.
The past 1980s, the traditional pension system that is now available for payment system is internationally connected. In the 1980s and 1990s, the reform of the pension system was one after another. The personal account system caused widespread concern. The Central Provident Fund System established in Singapore in 1955, the Chilean personal account system that implemented private competitive management in 1981, and the Swedish nominal personal account system that appeared in the 1990s.
The developed countries such as the United States and Germany still adopt the current collection and payment system in the basic pensions. All employees and enterprises have entered the overall account. The pension is paid by the social overall fund. It is easy to manage, but it is easy to make the finance overwhelmed.
I., as a country with the highest degree of aging in Europe and the birthplace of the pension insurance system, Germany's pension payment also faces a deficit crisis. Although remedial measures such as delayed retirement age and reducing welfare expenditure have been taken, the situation is still severe. Because EU countries are stipulated that they cannot provide pensions by borrowing, Germany's choice may be to reduce the replacement rate or increase the proportion of payment.
The large account plan in China can bypass the trouble of capital operation, but it will bring a lot of challenges to the existing pension governance system. "Finance" reporter learned that in the past few years, the plan was recognized by the decision -making layer, but was later shelved.
What kind of solution do you choose?
For China, the special thing about pension insurance reform is that "super aging" is coming.
The professor Xi Heng, a professor at the School of Public Management of Northwest University, pointed out that from 2015 to 2050, the proportion of the elderly population in China continued to increase, and the aging speed was much higher than that of other countries. The total fertility rate is long -term downturn, and the expected life span has continued to increase, and the urgency of the system increases.
In the two options of expanding personal accounts and maintaining the status quo, and increasing pension sustainability through parameters, the difference between the concept is the most significant difference: the former respects the actuarial fairness, emphasizes the positive correlation between the enthusiasm of payment and treatment between the payment enthusiasm and treatment Relationship; the latter emphasizes the effect of a lot of effort between different social groups.
In from some scholars, the payment system is now closely linked to the personal pension level and the average social salary of the society, and it has the function of re -distribution of income. If you particularly highlight the "extra payment and more" of personal accounts, the original disparity income distribution gap will also be expanded, which will be more conducive to the rich group, thereby departing from the original intention of social security.
Song Xiaowu, chairman of the China Economic Reform Foundation, is also worried that if the reform is not conducive to the poor and the yield of personal accounts is not high, the rich people do not actively pay, which will embarrass the entire system.
Chile, as a benchmark for establishing a pension personal account system, is in dilemma. In 1981, the country had reorganized the original currently cash -up payment system.
At present, Chile's personal account system has accumulated $ 170 billion in pension insurance funds, which is equivalent to 70 % of Chile's GDP. However, Yang Jun, an associate professor at the School of Labor and Personnel of Renmin University of China, introduced that Chile's personal account did not actually play sufficient incentives, and the coverage rate was not high.
How to enforce nationals to participate in endowment insurance, the average coverage level of Chile from 2009 to 2016 is only 56 %. The employee's payment year only accounts for about half of their employment years. In the future, it is impossible to get enough pensions.
The return on investment in Chile's personal account pension is also declining. From 1981 to 1990, the actual average return rate of pensions was 12.5 %, 9.24 % from 1991 to 2000, from 2001 to 2010 to 6.74 %, and only 3.01 % from 2011 to 2016.
, some scholars have proposed that even if they expand their personal accounts, they can also improve the re -distribution effect through some mechanism design, such as imitating Germany's "Rexter model": give some subsidies for some disadvantaged groups to increase their future to increase their future. Pension benefits income.
The difficulty in taking the nominal account plan: how to calculate the interest paid by the employee to the personal account, which is related to the current pension income of the current employee is high or low.
I. Zheng Bingwen, a supporter of this plan and director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of "Finance" that the accounting interest rate should be dynamic, that is, it is determined according to the situation of economic development. The use of nominal account system means that the account yield is linked to the biological yield (the sum of the social average wage growth rate and the natural growth rate of the population), or directly use the biological yield as the account bookkeeping interest rate to balance the system. In short, if the salary level is growing rapidly, the yield is also high.
The current personal account has been running empty accounts. Even if the nominal account system is not adopted, reasonable interest calculation is needed. In the past, the accounting interest rates were low, and there were large regional differences. Taking 2015 as an example, the personal account bookkeeping interest rates in Shandong, Liaoning, and Sichuan were 4.25 %, 2.76 %, and 1.5 %, respectively.
The end of June, the interest rate of uniform employee pensions across the country was first formulated and announced for the first time at 8.31 %. The New Deal proposes to refer to factors such as employee wage growth and fund balance status. This adjustment is that they are making up for the low interest rates in the past and boosting people's confidence in the system. Under the nominal account system, the formulation of the bookkeeping interest rate will be more transparent and higher degree of actuaries. If the proportion of personal accounts is also expanded, employees may need to bear more risk of economic recession. Continuing the current state of administrativeization.
In addition, the following determination to transition to the real account, the cost of transformation is inevitable, the pressure on the payment may be dispersed to multi -generation people to achieve long -term sustainability of the system.
Therefore, no matter which reform path is adopted, it is difficult to be called a perfect solution. Where the pension personal account will turn, it is necessary to consider it carefully.
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